Prediction of the Brazilian Paralympic Athletes’ Participation and Performance in the London 2012 and the Rio 2016 Paralympic Games

Abstract

This study uses data from the 2009-2012 and 2013-2016 Brazilian Paralympic athletes’ participation in athletics, and swimming international and national competitions, to predict their participation and performance in the Paralympic Summer Games of 2012 and 2016. Logistic regressions were conducted to examine the impact of the number of competitions, domestic and international, in which Brazilian Paralympic athletes participated in preparation for the Paralympics and their effective participation and performance in the London 2012 and the Rio 2016 Paralympic Games, and which year(s) of their participation in the cycles of the Paralympic competitions determine with more significance their participation in the Paralympic Games. Results document that for the sports in focus, there is a statistically significant relationship between participation and performance in the Paralympic Games and participation in the events of other sport competitions during the years leading up to each Paralympic cycle. Athletes’ participation in international competitions exhibits a higher impact on their participation in the Paralympic Games. Participation in international competitions also shows a positive and statistically significant impact on obtaining a medal by an athlete in the London 2012 and the Rio 2016 Paralympic Games. Additionally, participation in international competitions, in year 1 and year 3 preceding the Paralympic Games,