Climate change induced instability and conflicts: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger

Abstract

The nexus between climate change, instability and conflicts finds Africa, and specifically the Central Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger), a fertile field for its operationalisation. In this sub-region where there is already a very high potential for instability and conflict, climate change will intensify this situation by acting as a threat multiplier. This article tries to explore this link, explaining that climate change is not a grassroots cause of this instability, but will act as an exacerbator, causing an increase in the spread and appeal of radicalism, migratory waves and social and political instability, embodied in coups d'état and a threat to the traditional French and Western presence, which is being overtaken by new international players such as Russia – Wagner Group (Africa Corps) or China.