Institutional balancing as diplomacy: Türkiye’s dual-track engagement in a multipolar order

Abstract

This study analyses Türkiye’s foreign policy strategy within the framework of institutional balancing theory, a period marked by the increasing prominence of multipolarity and institutional pluralism in the post-Cold War international system. In the study, Türkiye’s increasing interaction with regional institutional structures, such as the SCO and OTS, while maintaining its relations with Western-centred institutions like NATO and the EU, is examined in the context of its search for strategic autonomy. Türkiye’s dual-track foreign policy approach is evaluated not only as an axis shift but as a multi-vector and multi-layered foreign policy model. Theoretically, based on the institutional balancing approach developed by Kai He, this study reveals that Türkiye employs both inclusive and exclusive institutional strategies to limit the influence of great powers. In this context, Türkiye’s historical relations with NATO and the EU, as well as its institutional orientations within the framework of the SCO and OTS, are comparatively examined, and it is claimed that it is seeking balance at the military, diplomatic, economic, and normative levels. Along with being a passive regional actor, Türkiye’s strategy demonstrates its multifaceted foreign policy approach and its emergence as a middle power that actively participates in the normative and structural processes of the international system. In this context, Türkiye’s institutional balancing practices provide an important example for understanding the new roles that medium-sized states can play in the changing international order.