The civil war in Ethiopia (2020-2022) and the African union's role in the peace process

Abstract

The war that erupted between the government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in November 2020 left the country embedded in an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, combining internal displacement, famine, and widespread human rights violations by external forces still present in the region. This research examines the conflict using the Contentious Politics Approach to Civil War (Florea, 2017) and discusses the role of the African Union in the peace negotiations in Pretoria, South Africa. After understanding the structural conditions that led to the authority and legitimacy crisis, and consequently, civil conflict, we identified in the war cycle in Ethiopia several mechanisms of radicalization and militarization. The interference of AU’s shuttle diplomacy resulted in the beginning of the peace negotiations and represented a remarkable achievement in independent African conflict resolution. Nonetheless, AU failed to oversee the full implementation of the agreement. The disarmament and demobilization phases were never completed, for instance, and Tigrayans currently find themselves on the edge of another conflict.