From merit to might: rethinking EU enlargement in light of Türkiye and Ukraine

Abstract

This article examines the recent developments in the European Union’s (EU) enlargement policy, arguing that the process has shifted from a primarily normative framework that prioritised democracy and economic integration to one increasingly influenced by geopolitics and security. Consequently, enlargement, a process historically characterised by its normative conditionality, has become a key instrument of strategic autonomy, and its credibility depends on reconciling the EU’s foundational values with the urgency of security priorities. The present comparative case study of Türkiye and Ukraine analyses how geopolitical developments—particularly Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine—have forced the EU to reevaluate its priorities in the enlargement process. While Türkiye’s decades-long accession trajectory has stalled as a result of political divergences and normative deficiencies, Ukraine’s candidacy has been unprecedentedly fast despite war and economic fragility, highlighting the EU’s shift towards geostrategic alignment. The study reveals a dual approach: fast-tracking candidates aligned with security imperatives while sidelining others despite longstanding candidate status. This raises critical questions about the coherence, credibility, and the role of normativity in the future of EU enlargement. The article concludes that sustaining the effectiveness of enlargement requires balancing geopolitical imperatives with the EU’s foundational values.