Corporate Performance under Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Evidence from Iberian Transnational Corporations

Abstract

This paper examines the value creation of Iberian transnational corporations (TNCs) from 2013 to 2023, focusing on the impact of geoeconomic fragmentation. Using data from 7,040 TNCs, we find that total shareholder returns (TSR) exhibited variability, driven by macroeconomic recoveries and geopolitical disruptions, with differences between Portuguese and Spanish firms. Lower geoeconomic risk is associated with higher TSR, emphasizing the importance of stable environments for multinational corporations. Additionally, firms with negatively skewed stock returns show higher corporate value as investors demand lower expected returns, particularly for firms not at extreme skewness levels. Our findings highlight the role of risk management and diversification strategies in enhancing firm performance when experiencing geoeconomic challenges. Results provide insights for corporate leaders, investors, and policymakers on the effects of global fragmentation on TNCs' performance. Our results are robust to alternative models and variable specifications.